Detecting Extinction Risk from Climate Change by IUCN Red List Criteria

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow‐acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short‐lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. Detección del Riesgo de Extinción a partir del Cambio Climático por medio del Criterio de la Lista Roja de la UICNKeith et al.     

Seventy‐One Important Questions for the Conservation of Marine Biodiversity

The ocean provides food, economic activity, and cultural value for a large proportion of humanity. Our knowledge of marine ecosystems lags behind that of terrestrial ecosystems, limiting effective protection of marine resources. We describe the outcome of 2 workshops in 2011 and 2012 to establish a list of important questions, which, if answered, would substantially improve our ability to conserve and manage the world's marine resources. Participants included individuals from academia, government, and nongovernment organizations with broad experience across disciplines, marine ecosystems, and countries that vary in levels of development. Contributors from the fields of science, conservation, industry, and government submitted questions to our workshops, which we distilled into a list of priority research questions. Through this process, we identified 71 key questions. We grouped these into 8 subject categories, each pertaining to a broad component of marine conservation: fisheries, climate change, other anthropogenic threats, ecosystems, marine citizenship, policy, societal and cultural considerations, and scientific enterprise. Our questions address many issues that are specific to marine conservation, and will serve as a road map to funders and researchers to develop programs that can greatly benefit marine conservation. Setenta y Un Preguntas Importantes para la Conservación de la Biodiversidad Marina     

Current Practice and Future Prospects for Social Data in Coastal and Ocean Planning

Coastal and ocean planning comprises a broad field of practice. The goals, political processes, and approaches applied to planning initiatives may vary widely. However, all planning processes ultimately require adequate information on both the biophysical and social attributes of a planning region. In coastal and ocean planning practice, there are well‐established methods to assess biophysical attributes; however, less is understood about the role and assessment of social data. We conducted the first global assessment of the incorporation of social data in coastal and ocean planning. We drew on a comprehensive review of planning initiatives and a survey of coastal and ocean practitioners. There was significantly more incorporation of social data in multiuse versus conservation‐oriented planning. Practitioners engaged a wide range of social data, including governance, economic, and cultural attributes of planning regions and human impacts data. Less attention was given to ecosystem services and social–ecological linkages, both of which could improve coastal and ocean planning practice. Although practitioners recognize the value of social data, little funding is devoted to its collection and incorporation in plans. Increased capacity and sophistication in acquiring critical social and ecological data for planning is necessary to develop plans for more resilient coastal and ocean ecosystems and communities. We suggest that improving social data monitoring, and in particular spatial social data, to complement biophysical data, is necessary for providing holistic information for decision‐support tools and other methods. Moving beyond people as impacts to people as beneficiaries, through ecosystem services assessments, holds much potential to better incorporate the tenets of ecosystem‐based management into coastal and ocean planning by providing targets for linked biodiversity conservation and human welfare outcomes. La Práctica Actual y los Prospectos Futuros para los Datos Sociales en la Planeación Costera y Oceánica     

Decision Making in a Human Population Living Sustainably

Abstract: The Tiwi people of northern Australia have managed natural resources continuously for 6000–8000 years. Tiwi management objectives and outcomes may reflect how they gather information about the environment. We qualitatively analyzed Tiwi documents and management techniques to examine the relation between the social and physical environment of decision makers and their decision‐making strategies. We hypothesized that principles of bounded rationality, namely, the use of efficient rules to navigate complex decision problems, explain how Tiwi managers use simple decision strategies (i.e., heuristics) to make robust decisions. Tiwi natural resource managers reduced complexity in decision making through a process that gathers incomplete and uncertain information to quickly guide decisions toward effective outcomes. They used management feedback to validate decisions through an information loop that resulted in long‐term sustainability of environmental use. We examined the Tiwi decision‐making processes relative to management of barramundi (Lates calcarifer) fisheries and contrasted their management with the state government's management of barramundi. Decisions that enhanced the status of individual people and their attainment of aspiration levels resulted in reliable resource availability for Tiwi consumers. Different decision processes adopted by the state for management of barramundi may not secure similarly sustainable outcomes.     

Acceleration of Exotic Plant Invasion in a Forested Ecosystem by a Generalist Herbivore

Abstract: The successful invasion of exotic plants is often attributed to the absence of coevolved enemies in the introduced range (i.e., the enemy release hypothesis). Nevertheless, several components of this hypothesis, including the role of generalist herbivores, remain relatively unexplored. We used repeated censuses of exclosures and paired controls to investigate the role of a generalist herbivore, white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), in the invasion of 3 exotic plant species (Microstegium vimineum, Alliaria petiolata, and Berberis thunbergii) in eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) forests in New Jersey and Pennsylvania (U.S.A.). This work was conducted in 10 eastern hemlock (T. canadensis) forests that spanned gradients in deer density and in the severity of canopy disturbance caused by an introduced insect pest, the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae). We used maximum likelihood estimation and information theoretics to quantify the strength of evidence for alternative models of the influence of deer density and its interaction with the severity of canopy disturbance on exotic plant abundance. Our results were consistent with the enemy release hypothesis in that exotic plants gained a competitive advantage in the presence of generalist herbivores in the introduced range. The abundance of all 3 exotic plants increased significantly more in the control plots than in the paired exclosures. For all species, the inclusion of canopy disturbance parameters resulted in models with substantially greater support than the deer density only models. Our results suggest that white‐tailed deer herbivory can accelerate the invasion of exotic plants and that canopy disturbance can interact with herbivory to magnify the impact. In addition, our results provide compelling evidence of nonlinear relationships between deer density and the impact of herbivory on exotic species abundance. These findings highlight the important role of herbivore density in determining impacts on plant abundance and provide evidence of the operation of multiple mechanisms in exotic plant invasion.     

Warfare in Biodiversity Hotspots

Abstract:  Conservation efforts are only as sustainable as the social and political context within which they take place. The weakening or collapse of sociopolitical frameworks during wartime can lead to habitat destruction and the erosion of conservation policies, but in some cases, may also confer ecological benefits through altered settlement patterns and reduced resource exploitation. Over 90% of the major armed conflicts between 1950 and 2000 occurred within countries containing biodiversity hotspots, and more than 80% took place directly within hotspot areas. Less than one-third of the 34 recognized hotspots escaped significant conflict during this period, and most suffered repeated episodes of violence. This pattern was remarkably consistent over these 5 decades. Evidence from the war-torn Eastern Afromontane hotspot suggests that biodiversity conservation is improved when international nongovernmental organizations support local protected area staff and remain engaged throughout the conflict. With biodiversity hotspots concentrated in politically volatile regions, the conservation community must maintain continuous involvement during periods of war, and biodiversity conservation should be incorporated into military, reconstruction, and humanitarian programs in the world's conflict zones.     

Translocation as a Tool for Mitigating Conflict with Leopards in Human‐Dominated Landscapes of India

Abstract: We examined the efficacy of a translocation program in which large numbers of leopards (Panthera pardus fusca) were trapped in human‐dominated landscapes where livestock attacks were common and human attacks rare and released into adjoining forested areas in an attempt to reduce leopard presence and mitigate conflicts at the capture site. In the year starting in February of 2001, 29 leopards were captured in the human‐dominated rural landscape of the Junnar region (4275 km², 185 people/km²), Maharashtra, India, and released an average of 39.5 km away in adjoining forests. Eleven leopards were also relocated to the same forests from other districts. Prior to the large‐scale translocation program, an average of four leopard attacks on humans occurred each year between 1993 and 2001. After the translocation program was initiated, the average increased substantially to 17 attacks. Linear and logistic models showed that attack frequency increased in Junnar following nearby releases of leopards and decreased when leopards were removed for releases far away; that attacks became more lethal when the number of leopards introduced from other districts increased; and that attacks were most likely to occur in the regions where the largest number of leopards had been introduced from other areas. These results suggest that leopards did not stay at the release sites and that translocation induced attacks on people. Potential explanations for these results include increased aggression induced by stress of the translocation process, movement through unfamiliar human‐dominated landscapes following release, and loss of fear of humans due to familiarity with humans acquired during captivity. Our results show that reactive solutions to attacks on humans by leopards, such as translocation, could in fact increase human–leopard conflict. Measures to reduce human–carnivore conflicts may include more effective compensation procedures to pay livestock owners for the loss of animals to predation by carnivores, providing better methods of protection for livestock, and encouraging greater social acceptance of the presence of carnivores in human‐dominated landscapes.     

Conservation Value of Sites of Hybridization in Peripheral Populations of Rare Plant Species

Abstract:  Populations at the periphery of a species' range are of interest to conservation biologists because they can show marked genetic differentiation from populations at the center of a range and because of potential hybridization among rare and common species. We examined two closely related Cyclamen species. One is a narrow endemic, and the other is more geographically widespread (both protected by law in continental southern France). We used floral traits and genetic variability to test for hybridization among the species in peripheral populations of the rare species. The species co-occurred on Corsica in a disjunct, peripheral part of the distribution of the endemic species and in an ecologically marginal area for the widespread species. The two species have hybridized and the endemic species showed high levels of introgression with its widespread congener. Genetic and floral variability in sites with both species was markedly higher than in sites with a single species. Our results highlight the need for a conservation strategy that integrates hybrid populations because they represent a source of novel diversity that may have adaptive potential.     

Contrasts in Livelihoods and Protein Intake between Commercial and Subsistence Bushmeat Hunters in Two Villages on Bioko Island,Equatorial Guinea

Across West and Central Africa, wildlife provides a source of food and income. We investigated the relation between bushmeat hunting and household wealth and protein consumption in 2 rural communities in Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. One village was dedicated to commercial hunting, the other trapped game primarily for food. We tested whether commercial‐hunter households were nutritionally advantaged over subsistence‐hunter households due to their higher income from the bushmeat trade and greater access to wild‐animal protein. We conducted bushmeat‐offtake surveys in both villages (captures by hunters and carcasses arriving to each village). Mammals (including threatened primates: black colobus [Colobus satanas], Preussi's guenon [Allochrocebus preussi], and russet‐eared guenon [Cercopithecus erythrotis]), birds, and reptiles were hunted. The blue duiker (Philantomba monticola), giant pouched rat (Cricetomys emini), and brush‐tailed porcupine (Atherurus africanus) contributed almost all the animal biomass hunted, consumed, or sold in both villages. Monkeys and Ogilbyi's duikers (Cephalophus ogilbyi) were hunted only by commercial hunters. Commercial hunters generated a mean of US$2000/year from bushmeat sales. Households with commercial hunters were on average wealthier, generated more income, spent more money on nonessential goods, and bought more products they did not grow. By contrast, households with subsistence hunters spent less on market items, spent more on essential products, and grew more of their own food. Despite these differences, average consumption of vegetable protein and domestic meat and bushmeat protein did not differ between villages. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the socioeconomic and nutritional context of commercial and subsistence bushmeat hunting to correctly interpret ways of reducing their effects on threatened species and to enable the sustainable offtake of more productive taxa. Contrastes en el Sustento y la Ingesta de Proteínas entre Carne de Caza de Subsistencia y Comercial en Dos Aldeas en Isla Bioko, Guinea Ecuatorial